View our publications

As part of our research into topics including trade and productivity & skills, we have produced a series of detailed publications which you are welcome to download and study the findings.

Click on any publication you’re interested in below to view and download.

A Special Report: Infrastructure and Productivity WMCA

Authors: Jun Du and Mustapha Douch

This review was written for the West Midland Combined Authority’s Productivity and Skills Commission. It reviews the current understanding about how infrastructure impacts on productivity and growth, in the context of the UK and the West Midlands, so as to identify the key issues in the existing infrastructure and in turn offer recommendations.

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UK Trade in the New Globalised World

Authors: Agelos Delis, Mustapha Douch, Jun Du (Lead), Christos Ioannidis, Sandra L. Torres and Enrico Vanino.

State of the art on international trade and its drivers at both the aggregate and firm levels, by reviewing the literature and evaluating the UK’s position in the Global Value Chains (GVCs). It identifies what it is that we need to know about UK trade, but do not yet know, guide the prioritisation of the research agenda on the UK trade and productivity issues.

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Defying Gravity? Policy Uncertainty and Trade Diversion

Authors: Mustapha Douch, Jun Du and Enrico Vanino

This paper investigates the effects of trade policy uncertainty on firm export margins and trade diversion, exploiting the Brexit process as a natural experiment and using the UK’s transaction-level trade in goods data.

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Individual Ownership, Age of Firm, and Productivity

Authors: Mustapha Douch, Jun Du and Tomasz Mickiewicz

This paper investigates the relationship of ownership structure and concentration in determining productivity and how firm age plays an important role. The empirical work draws on the UK companies over 2008-2017, using large micro level data from Orbis.

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The Evolution of British Sectoral Exports to China, EU and US

Authors: Agelos Delis, Christos Ioannidis and Michalis Stamatogiannis

This paper analyses the evolution and determination of UK exports in the ten major sectors over the period 1962 – 2016, by estimating the export sensitivity to fluctuations in the real exchange rate and in world trend and cyclical income.

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The revised version of the paper employs more recent and more frequent data, using monthly observations from ONS for the period January 1998 to January 2020. We consider two export destinations EU and non-EU. Implementing the MM method, we estimate exchange rate and income elasticities of exports for several UK Sectors. We find that both UK sectoral export elasticities are smaller for the EU markets compared to non-EU. Sector specific elasticities vary, but their patterns are qualitatively similar across destinations. UK Sectors participating intensively in Global Value Chains (GVCs) have much lower responsiveness of their exports to changes in foreign demand, but higher with respect to changes in the exchange rate.

UK Productivity & Skills

Researchers: Mustapha Douch, Jun Du (Lead), Tomasz Mickiewicz, David Morris

State of the art on the UK’s productivity and skills. It overviews the current literature about the productivity puzzle, distinguishing the UK’s zero-growth productivity problem since the financial crisis in 2008 from the UK’s long-term low productivity growth challenge. The report focuses on the skills issues in determining productivity but pays particular attentions on the role of technology in the skills-productivity links. It identifies what it is that we need to know about UK productivity challenges, but do not yet know, guide the prioritisation of the research agenda on the UK productivity issues.

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UK Tourism and Hospitality Sectors through COVIC-19: the dissolved, the liquidised and the dormant

Authors: Chris Cao, Jun Du and Michail Karoglou

This research provides fresh evidence on the scale of COVID-19 ’s immediate impact on the UK tourism and hospitality sectors up to 28 June 2020. We first summarise the business status of existing firms in the four major sectors of tourism and hospitality and the profiles of inactive firms then turn to analyse the historical trends of business entry and exits to project further business failure in the near term, before we finally provide recommendations on pathways to recovery.

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UK Professional and Business Services (PBS) Sectors and their International Traders

Authors: Mustapha Douch, Jun Du, Uzoamaka Nduka and Oleksandr Shepotylo

This project aims to understand the role of the UK’s Professional and Services sectors in the UK economy and the post-Brexit future their international traders face. We develop an insight paper and commentaries based on the written evidence submitted to the Parliament’s inquiry.

An insight paper is written about some facts found in this analysis, and a blog is published by the UK in Changing Europe.

A piece of written evidence was submitted for the Parliament Inquiry on European Union Committee: The future UK-EU relationship on the Professional and Business Services in June 2020. It has been adopted and published by the EU Services Sub-Committee October 2020.

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COVID-19 Pandemic and Global Value Chains

Authors: Agelos Delis, Mustapha Douch, Jun Du and Oleksandr Shepotylo

This project aims to understand the impact of COVID-19 pandemic on the global trade and value chains. We start from where the pandemic initiated to where it transmits to. Using up-to-date data, we quantify the disruption, examine its transmission and look beyond it for implications for the UK.
We develop an insight paper, and contribute an article to the Conversation, entitled ‘Coronavirus won’t kill globalisation – but a shakeup is inevitable’, also published in the World Economic Forum ‘Lessons from China: This is how COVID-19 could affect globalization’.
We also submitted written evidence to the Parliament’s inquiry and it has been adopted to the Parliament’s report ‘The COVID-19 pandemic and international trade’, published on 29 July 2020 by International Trade Committee.

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Research Areas

The Lloyds Banking Group Centre for Business Prosperity delivers world leading research in a multitude of different topics.

Data Resources

We have created high quality databases that capture data in precise detail to aid in our studies of trade and productivity in the UK