View our publications

As part of our research into topics including trade and productivity & skills, we have produced a series of detailed publications which you are welcome to download and study the findings.

Click on any publication you’re interested in below to view and download.

A Special Report: Infrastructure and Productivity WMCA

Authors: Jun Du and Mustapha Douch

This review was written for the West Midland Combined Authority’s Productivity and Skills Commission. It reviews the current understanding about how infrastructure impacts on productivity and growth, in the context of the UK and the West Midlands, so as to identify the key issues in the existing infrastructure and in turn offer recommendations.

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UK Trade in the New Globalised World

Authors: Agelos Delis, Mustapha Douch, Jun Du (Lead), Christos Ioannidis, Sandra L. Torres and Enrico Vanino.

State of the art on international trade and its drivers at both the aggregate and firm levels, by reviewing the literature and evaluating the UK’s position in the Global Value Chains (GVCs). It identifies what it is that we need to know about UK trade, but do not yet know, guide the prioritisation of the research agenda on the UK trade and productivity issues.

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Defying Gravity? Policy Uncertainty and Trade Diversion

Authors: Mustapha Douch, Jun Du and Enrico Vanino

This paper investigates the effects of trade policy uncertainty on firm export margins and trade diversion, exploiting the Brexit process as a natural experiment and using the UK’s transaction-level trade in goods data.

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Individual Ownership, Age of Firm, and Productivity

Authors: Mustapha Douch, Jun Du and Tomasz Mickiewicz

This paper investigates the relationship of ownership structure and concentration in determining productivity and how firm age plays an important role. The empirical work draws on the UK companies over 2008-2017, using large micro level data from Orbis.

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The Evolution of British Sectoral Exports to China, EU and US

Authors: Agelos Delis, Christos Ioannidis and Michalis Stamatogiannis

This paper analyses the evolution and determination of UK exports in the ten major sectors over the period 1962 – 2016, by estimating the export sensitivity to fluctuations in the real exchange rate and in world trend and cyclical income.

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The revised version of the paper employs more recent and more frequent data, using monthly observations from ONS for the period January 1998 to January 2020. We consider two export destinations EU and non-EU. Implementing the MM method, we estimate exchange rate and income elasticities of exports for several UK Sectors. We find that both UK sectoral export elasticities are smaller for the EU markets compared to non-EU. Sector specific elasticities vary, but their patterns are qualitatively similar across destinations. UK Sectors participating intensively in Global Value Chains (GVCs) have much lower responsiveness of their exports to changes in foreign demand, but higher with respect to changes in the exchange rate.

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UK Productivity & Skills

Researchers: Mustapha Douch, Jun Du (Lead), Tomasz Mickiewicz, David Morris

State of the art on the UK’s productivity and skills. It overviews the current literature about the productivity puzzle, distinguishing the UK’s zero-growth productivity problem since the financial crisis in 2008 from the UK’s long-term low productivity growth challenge. The report focuses on the skills issues in determining productivity but pays particular attentions on the role of technology in the skills-productivity links. It identifies what it is that we need to know about UK productivity challenges, but do not yet know, guide the prioritisation of the research agenda on the UK productivity issues.

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UK Tourism and Hospitality Sectors through COVIC-19: the dissolved, the liquidised and the dormant

Authors: Chris Cao, Jun Du and Michail Karoglou

This research provides fresh evidence on the scale of COVID-19 ’s immediate impact on the UK tourism and hospitality sectors up to 28 June 2020. We first summarise the business status of existing firms in the four major sectors of tourism and hospitality and the profiles of inactive firms then turn to analyse the historical trends of business entry and exits to project further business failure in the near term, before we finally provide recommendations on pathways to recovery.

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UK Professional and Business Services (PBS) Sectors and their International Traders

Authors: Mustapha Douch, Jun Du, Uzoamaka Nduka and Oleksandr Shepotylo

This project aims to understand the role of the UK’s Professional and Services sectors in the UK economy and the post-Brexit future their international traders face. We develop an insight paper and commentaries based on the written evidence submitted to the Parliament’s inquiry.

An insight paper is written about some facts found in this analysis, and a blog is published by the UK in Changing Europe.

A piece of written evidence was submitted for the Parliament Inquiry on European Union Committee: The future UK-EU relationship on the Professional and Business Services in June 2020. It has been adopted and published by the EU Services Sub-Committee October 2020.

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COVID-19 Pandemic and Global Value Chains

Authors: Agelos Delis, Mustapha Douch, Jun Du and Oleksandr Shepotylo

This project aims to understand the impact of COVID-19 pandemic on the global trade and value chains. We start from where the pandemic initiated to where it transmits to. Using up-to-date data, we quantify the disruption, examine its transmission and look beyond it for implications for the UK.

We develop an insight paper, and contribute an article to the Conversation, entitled ‘Coronavirus won’t kill globalisation – but a shakeup is inevitable’, also published in the World Economic Forum ‘Lessons from China: This is how COVID-19 could affect globalization’.

We also submitted written evidence to the Parliament’s inquiry and it has been adopted to the Parliament’s report ‘The COVID-19 pandemic and international trade’, published on 29 July 2020 by International Trade Committee.

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UK Trade and Prosperity 2020 - Looking Beyond BREXIT and COVID

Authors:  Jun Du, Oleksandr Shepotylo, Meng Song and Xiaocan Yuan

This is the 2020 year-end report, finalising a series of research outputs from the Lloyds Banking Group Centre for Business Prosperity (LBGCBP) that covered skill challenges, productivity, and prosperity in the UK.

The purpose of this report is to review the long-term trend and current state of UK trade and productivity, and sketches a comprehensive overview of how UK trade has evolved during the Brexit transition and the COVID crisis. It offers policy implications on the ways forward and highlights pertinent questions for future research.

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COVID-19 and UK Trade

Authors: Jun Du and Oleksandr Shepotylo

This paper documents the unprecedented disruptions which affected UK trade during the COVID-19 pandemic in 2020. Overall UK exports contracted by 15% in 2020, while an international comparison depicts similar sharp declines among the UK’s peers, but the statistics suggest that UK had a deeper decline and slower recovery, compared with Germany, Italy, Spain and the US. Drawing on the most recent available monthly trade transactions between the UK and its trading partners up to September/October 2020, we make pioneering efforts to provide a comprehensive and in-depth analysis of the international trade dynamics of UK businesses.

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Feeding the Celtic Tiger – Brexit, Ireland and Services Trade

Authors: Jun Du and Oleksandr Shepotylo

This project studies the impact of the 2016 Brexit Referendum on the services trade of the UK and Ireland. Using the synthetic control method, we show that in 2016-2019, on average, the UK has been losing 9.2% of services exports or 36.7 billion USD every year. This amounts to 146.8 billion USD between 2016-2019 in total. By contrast, Ireland is the big winner of Brexit. We show that, over the same period, Ireland on average has boosted its services exports by 23.6% or 41 billion USD every year, generating extra export value of 164.1 billion USD in total relative to the counterfactual scenario in which Brexit did not happen. In the longer term though, UK businesses will need to develop their real competitiveness to counterbalance the disadvantages brought by Brexit. Such competitive edge can be only be created by productivity and innovation

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Carbon Neutrality: The Role of Banks in Optimal Environmental Management Strategies

Authors: Sajid Chaudhry, Asif Saeed and Rizwan Ahmed

This study explores the ecological ambitions of banks by studying the coincidence of economic realities with environmental management strategies. We address this question by studying the environmental performance of US banks and its impact on their tail risk as US is not committed to carbon neutrality in COP 21. We proxy economic reality with tail risk of banks and employ a novel extreme value theory to measure this. We use Asset4 ESG data for environmental performance score and test our hypothesis with a sample of 256 US banks. We proxy economic reality with tail risk of banks and employ a novel extreme value theory to measure this.

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Does Culture affect Energy Poverty? Evidence from a Cross-Country Analysis

Authors: Sajid Chaudhry and Muhammad Shafiullah

We investigate the impact of cultural dimension on energy poverty—a topic hitherto overlooked in the literature—employing panel fixed effects, logistic, and heteroskedasticity identified endogenous variable regression estimators. The panel framework incorporates 103 countries over a period of 1971–2018. Using five different proxies representing the cultural dimensions and other demographic and macroeconomic control variables, the empirical analyses reveal that power distance and masculinity (as opposed to femininity) worsen the conditions of energy poverty while individualism (as opposed to collectivism) and long/short-term orientation (i.e., pragmatism vs. traditionalism/conservatism) tend to lessen the probability of energy deprivation.

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Research Areas

The Lloyds Banking Group Centre for Business Prosperity delivers world leading research in a multitude of different topics.

Data Resources

We have created high quality databases that capture data in precise detail to aid in our studies of trade and productivity in the UK