Dr Oleksandr Shepotylo and Dr Karen Jackson (University of Westminster) have had a new publication accepted in the World Economy, “An Examination of EU Trade Disintegration Scenarios”.


This paper demonstrates the welfare implications of the differential disintegration of the EU. Using a structural gravity approach, our estimates suggest that the rest of the EU countries have much more to lose from the disintegration of the EU compared to a disorderly Brexit. At the same time, neighboring high income and middle income countries, such as Bosnia and Herzegovina and Norway, are expected to benefit from EU disintegration under some scenarios because trade would be diverted from EU countries.

Article published: 9 October 2020